Mateusz Rebecki vs. Chris Duncan Prediction

The Redecki vs Duncan Lightweight bout could be a sleeper fight for the UFC on ESPN 71 event. Even though on paper the card does sound a bit thin, this shouldn’t be the fight to judge the card on. 

Redecki is a brawler with world-class wrestling. He can bang with the best, but it is his wrestling that often helps him stand apart from his opponents. Unfortunately, his wrestling was not enough to help him win the bout against Diego Ferreira, who stopped him with punches and ended his 16-fight win streak. Redecki was able to come back by defeating Myktybek Orolbai by decision and perhaps signalling that he is in line of going on another run.

Meanwhile, Scotland’s Chris Duncan is often seen as a puncher. But his finish record, which saw him get two submission guillotines in his last two wins speak of him being a well-rounded fighter. Duncan is 4-1 in the UFC and has lost only twice in his entire career. He was unfortunately choked out by Manuel Torres, but then came back with two wins on his own. He defeated Bolaji Oki and Jordan Vucenic, stating that he still has more that he can offer. 

Even though the oddsmakers are giving Redecki an advantage, I see this as a mistake on their part. While Redecki is a better wrestler, he is in no way a better grappler. Also, he does have a tendency to start slow, while Duncan likes kicking things into gear as soon as the bell rings. He is more than likely going to be all over Redecki from the first round, and if he takes round one, he can easily work his way to a decision win or perhaps even another submission. 

Chris Duncan represents a valued bet here, so I’m taking him winning the bout and perhaps earning himself another submission win.